Research Report : Indian Financial Markets Outlook - 19th June 2025

 

Ravi Bhatt

Sebi Registered Research Analyst - INH000012591

Website - www.capsavaj.com

Fed Reserve holds interest rate steady, markets remain muted

In the morning session, US equity futures edged lower alongside declines in Asian markets, following Wednesday’s selloff on Wall Street after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said he expected inflation to pickup in the coming months. Japan’s Topix index was down 0.6% while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.2%. The Fed left the rates unchanged in its meeting and indicated that there could be two further cuts this year.

The GIFT Nifty fell 0.21% to 24,810 in the morning, signning a negative start to the Indian equities. The FOMC decided to keep rates unchanged at the 4.25-4.5% range for the fourth time in a unanimous decision Foreign portfolio investors remained net buyers of Indian equities for the second consecutive session on Wednesday, mopping stocks worth Rs 891 crore, according to the provisional data from the National Stock Exchange.

Domestic institutional investors continued to stay net buyers for the 24th straight session as they obtained equities worth Rs 1,091.3 crore, the data showed.

Fundamental Update

• Vodafone Idea - The company signed an agreement with AST Spacemobile to expand mobile connectivity and bring direct-to-device satellite broadband connectivity. Positive

• Garware Technical - The company incorporated wholly owned subsidiary Garwares Technical Fibres AS in Norway. Positive

• ESAF Small Finance Bank - The bank approved the proposal for sale of NPA, written-off loans to Asset Reconstruction Company. Positive

• Inox Green Energy - Promoter Devansh Trademart further acquired 30,000 shares of the company via open market transactions. Positive

Technical Update

• NIFTY - The Nifty index dragged lower amid weak sentiments to settle at 24,812 on Wednesday. Index hovers near 17day EMA of 24,837. Today’s range – 24,700 – 24,950.

• BANKNIFTY - Bank nifty regained early losses to close marginally higher at 55,828 on Wednesday. Index continues trade in narrow range. Today’s range – 55,250 – 56,050.

Disclaimer: This report is prepared by an analyst who has exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information before publishing research report. We shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage in analysis or views obtained from the use of information contained in this report and especially states that we have no financial liability whatsoever to the user of this report.

Federal Reserve meeting today - 18th June 2025

 

Ravi Bhatt

Sebi Registered Research Analyst - INH000012591

Website - www.capsavaj.com

શું પૉવેલ (Powell) ટ્રમ્પના (Trump's) રેટ કટના (rate cut) દબાણ સામે ઝૂકી જશે?

યુએસ ફેડરલ રિઝર્વ (US Federal Reserve) આજે યુએસની નાણાકીય નીતિ (monetary policy) પર જાહેરાત કરવા માટે તૈયાર છે, અને રોકાણકારો માની રહ્યા છે કે વર્તમાન 4.25-4.5 ટકાની રેન્જમાં રહેલા વ્યાજ દરોમાં (interest rates) લગભગ કોઈ ફેરફાર નહીં થાય. બજારોને (Markets) આ વર્ષના અંત સુધીમાં બે કટની (cuts) અપેક્ષા છે, જેમાં સપ્ટેમ્બર મહિનો સૌથી પહેલો હોઈ શકે છે જ્યારે દરો ફરીથી ઘટવાનું શરૂ કરશે. રોકાણકારો એવી અપેક્ષા રાખી રહ્યા છે કે પૉવેલ, ટ્રમ્પના દબાણથી પ્રભાવિત થયા વગર પોતાનું કામ ચાલુ રાખશે.

ટ્રમ્પે છેલ્લા કેટલાક અઠવાડિયાથી દરોમાં પૂરા એક ટકાના ઘટાડાની માંગ કરી છે, અને ફેડ ચેરમેનને “numbskull” કહ્યા છે અને જણાવ્યું છે કે તેમને “કદાચ કંઈક દબાણપૂર્વક કરાવવું પડશે”. ટ્રમ્પે તો પૉવેલને ફેડરલ રિઝર્વના ચીફ (Chief of Federal Reserve) પદેથી હટાવવાનો પણ પ્રયાસ કર્યો હતો, પરંતુ બજારમાં આ વિચારને સારો પ્રતિસાદ મળ્યો ન હતો. સંભવ છે કે પૉવેલ આજે પછીથી યોજાનારી, મીટિંગ પછીની તેમની પ્રેસ કોન્ફરન્સમાં (press conference) “સાવચેતીભરી ધીરજ” (cautious patience) નો સૂર અપનાવશે.

Economic Data (આર્થિક ડેટા)

• Inflation and labour markets :- છેલ્લા એક quarter દરમિયાન, USA માં inflation (ફુગાવો) 2% ના લક્ષ્યાંક કરતાં થોડું વધારે રહ્યું છે, જ્યારે job growth સાધારણ રીતે ધીમું પડી રહ્યું છે. આ સૂચવે છે કે US economy માં નબળાઈ ધીમે ધીમે વધી રહી છે અને નીચો growth આગળ જતાં rate cut ની સંભાવનાઓ વધારી શકે છે.                                                                            

• Manufacturing PMI :- ISM PMI માર્ચમાં 50.3 થી ઘટીને મે મહિનામાં 48.5 પર આવી ગયો છે, જે 50 ની threshold (સપાટી) ની નીચે સતત ત્રીજો મહિનો છે અને manufacturing activity માં contraction (સંકોચન) નો સંકેત આપે છે. મુખ્ય sub-indices પણ વધુ strain (દબાણ) દર્શાવે છે : new orders અને production નબળા રહ્યા છે, જ્યારે supplier delivery times વધી રહ્યા છે - જે સંભવતઃ tariff-related supply-chain bottlenecks ને કારણે છે.

• Retail Sales: U.S. Commerce Department એ ગઈકાલે report કર્યો કે મે મહિનામાં U.S. retail sales 0.9% ઘટ્યું છે, જે 0.7% ના decline (ઘટાડા) ની અપેક્ષા કરતાં વધુ છે અને છેલ્લા ચાર મહિનામાં સૌથી મોટો ઘટાડો છે. કેટલાક economists ના મતે, જૂનમાં નાનો ઘટાડો દર્શાવતા revisions (સુધારા) સાથેનો retail sales report, ધીમા પડેલા auto sales થી ખૂબ પ્રભાવિત હતો. વર્ષની શરૂઆતમાં, imported vehicles પર 25% levies (કર) ટાળવાની આશા રાખતા consumers ને કારણે auto sales માં એક surge (ઉછાળો) આવ્યો હતો. ખરાબ હવામાન (Bad weather) પણ આ ઘટાડાનું એક કારણ હોઈ શકે છે.

Likely Outcome (સંભવિત પરિણામ)

મોટા ભાગના economic data, Federal Reserve ને dovish stand લેવા અને economic growth ને boost કરવા માટે 25 bps rate cut કરવા માટે એક સારું પ્લેટફોર્મ પૂરું પાડે છે. પરંતુ તાજેતરના મધ્ય પૂર્વના તણાવ (middle east tensions) એ શક્યતાઓ ઓછી કરી દીધી છે, કારણ કે oil prices માં આવેલો surge (ઉછાળો) inflation forecast ને જટિલ બનાવી શકે છે. જોકે, ઇઝરાયેલ અને ઈરાન વચ્ચેના તીવ્ર missile exchanges ના દિવસોએ Fed ને વધુ સાવચેત રહેવા માટે કારણ આપ્યું છે, કારણ કે મંગળવારે oil prices ફરી ઉછળ્યા અને inflation ના સંભવિત નવા સ્ત્રોત તરીકે ઉભરી આવ્યા.

વધતી કિંમતોનું જોખમ central bank માટે એક મુખ્ય ચિંતાનો વિષય છે, ભલે એવા સંકેતો હોય કે એકંદરે economy ધીમી પડી રહી છે. ટ્રમ્પના અંતિમ tariff plans હજુ પણ અસ્પષ્ટ છે, જેમાં trade deals ના વચનો અપાયા છે પરંતુ તે હજુ સુધી ડઝનેક દેશો સાથે થયા નથી, જેમને તેમણે tax લગાવવાની ધમકી આપી છે. આ ઉપરાંત, appliances જેવી ચોક્કસ goods પર levy (કર) લગાવવાના one-off proposals અમલમાં આવી પણ શકે છે અને નહીં પણ.

માર્ચ meeting દરમિયાન, Fed એ આ વર્ષે economic growth માટેની તેમની અપેક્ષાઓ ઘટાડી હતી અને અપેક્ષિત inflation નું સ્તર વધાર્યું હતું, પરંતુ આ વર્ષે બે quarter-percentage-point rate cuts માટેના median outlook ને યથાવત રાખ્યો હતો. Central bank દ્વારા inflation ને નિયંત્રિત રાખવા પર ભાર મૂકવામાં આવતા અને ટ્રમ્પના નવા tariffs થી હજુ પણ price increases થશે તેવી અપેક્ષાઓને ધ્યાનમાં લેતા, વધુ hawkish shift ની શક્યતા છે.

આથી, Fed આ meeting દરમિયાન interest rate ને HOLD કરે તેવી સૌથી વધુ શક્યતા છે, પરંતુ નબળી પડી રહેલી US economy ને ધ્યાનમાં રાખીને આ વર્ષ દરમિયાન rate cut માટે couple of dots (સંકેતો) plot કરી શકે છે. આવો policy shift markets ને ઉપર તરફ ધકેલી શકે છે.

Disclaimer: This report is prepared by an analyst who has exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information before publishing research report. We shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage in analysis or views obtained from the use of information contained in this report and especially states that we have no financial liability whatsoever to the user of this report.

Research Report : Indian Financial Markets Outlook - 17th JUNE 2025

 

Ravi Bhatt

Sebi Registered Research Analyst - INH000012591

Website - www.capsavaj.com

 

Markets turn weak after evacuate Tehran call by Donald Trump

US futures slipped in Asia session in the morning as US President Donald Trump asked people to evacuate Tehran after deciding to leave G-7 summit Monday. His actions are in contrast to what Trump said earlier. He assured that the conflict between Israel and Tehran will not end into a full-fledged war.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P Futures were trading 0.32% and 0.34% down, respectively in the morning. The GIFT NIFTY too turned weak in the morning session down 45 points at 24,971. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 1.9% to $73.11 a barrel while Spot gold rose 0.5% to $3,400.49 an ounce. The Foreign investors remained net sellers yesterday, drawing 1,256 crores from Indian equity markets.

Fundamental Update

• Biocon - The Company opened a QIP of Rs 4,500 crore at a floor price of Rs 340.2 per share. Proceeds from the QIP are to be used to reduce debt. Positive
• Vishal Mega Mart - Promoter Kedaara Capital via Samayat Services LLP will sell a 10% stake via block deals. Negative
• TCS - The Company partnered with the Council of Europe Development Bank to transform reconciliation processes. Positive
• HCL Tech - The Company signed an agreement with E.ON to accelerate product-based transformation. Positive

Technical Update

• NIFTY - The Nifty index continued upward march rising over 200 points to settle at 24,946 on Monday. Index shrugged off Israel Iran war and close above 17 day EMA of 24,840. Index likely to hit 25K as near term resistance while support remains at 24,850. Today’s range – 24,850 – 25,050.
• BANKNIFTY - Bank nifty too gained further and close above 17 day EMA at 55,944 on Monday. Index has taken support at 55,300 while 56350 is near term resistance. Today’s range – 55,300 – 56,350.

Disclaimer: This report is prepared by an analyst who has exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information before publishing research report. We shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage in analysis or views obtained from the use of information contained in this report and especially states that we have no financial liability whatsoever to the user of this report.

Research Report : Indian Financial Markets Outlook - 16th JUNE 2025

Ravi Bhatt
Sebi Registered Research Analyst - INH000012591
Website - www.capsavaj.com

Oil price remained elevated as Israel – Iran conflict continues

Asia – Pacific markets rose on Monday morning seeing a pullback from the losses in the previous sessions. Additionally, investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets like gold and oil as Israel and Iran continued attacks on each other over the weekend. Equity-index futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.1%, while Asian markets also rose on Monday. The Israeli Air Force launched an attack on the giant South Pars gas field after strike on Iran’s nuclear sites. 

The GIFT Nifty was up 0.16% at 24,780 in the morning, signaling a positive start to Indian markets today. Foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers of Indian equities for the third straight session, offloading stocks worth Rs 1,263.52 crore, according to the provisional data from NSE. Domestic institutional investors continued to stay net buyers for the 21st straight session as they obtained equities worth Rs 3,041.44 crore.

Fundamental Update

• ITC - The company acquired Sresta Natural Bioproducts for an upfront consideration of Rs 400 crore. SNBPL has become a wholly owned subsidiary of the company post-acquisition. Positive

• Yes Bank - Moody’s upgraded the bank ratings to Ba2 from Ba3 and changed the rating outlook to stable from positive. Positive

• Natco Pharma - The USFDA, in its inspection from June 9 to June 13 at the API manufacturing plant located in Hyderabad, concluded with one observation in form-483. Positive

• Tata Motors - Moody’s raised Jaguar Land Rover’ rating to Ba1 from Ba2 and revised outlook to positive. Positive

Technical Update

• NIFTY – The Nifty index recovered after early slump on Friday to settle at 24,718. Index sentiments were battered after increased geopolitical risks in Middle East. Index likely to trade in range with resistance at 17 day EMA of 24,825. Today’s range – 24,550 – 24,850.

• BANKNIFTY – Bank nifty too recovered to 55,527 after early weakness on Friday. Index has taken support at 55K while 17 day EMA of 55,825 is near term resistance. Today’s range – 55,000 – 56,150.

Disclaimer: This report is prepared by an analyst who has exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of the information before publishing research report. We shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage in analysis or views obtained from the use of information contained in this report and especially states that we have no financial liability whatsoever to the user of this report.

Nifty Outlook :- 07.06.2025 - CFA Hitesh Somani

CFA Hitesh Somani

MD - Aapka Investments 

Website - https://www.aapkainvestments.in

Nifty closed with strong bullish move amid RBI Rate Cut. Banking and Finance Sectors on Fire.

Last week nifty faced major resistance at 25000 levels and it fell sharply from those levels to 24600 as we said in the last article but finally on Friday amid RBI rate cut decision as RBI once again slashed 50 basis points in the interest rates, markets reacted strongly and nifty finally closed above 25000 levels on Friday. Banknifty and Finance Companies like Bajaj Finance, Shriram Finance also showed a big bullish move amid this news.

We can see this strong rally in the next week also if nifty manages to close above 25200 levels in the next week then we can see nifty towards 25500 and 25800 levels soon. Banknifty closed above 56500 levels which is its fresh lifetime high. Banknifty may show 57000 and 57500.

One should have a strong bullish view for markets in the next week. Nifty and banknifty both are in strong bullish moves. Major support levels for nifty is 24600, till it sustains above these levels it would be strong but of it closes below that we may see a sharp fall in the markets.

Important Levels for Nifty Next Week

Major Support Levels for Nifty

Support 1 – 24800

Support 2 – 24600

Support 3 – 24250

 Major Resistance Levels for Nifty

Resistance 1 – 25200

Resistance 2 – 25450

Resistance 3 – 25700

Important Levels for Banknifty Next Week

Major Support Levels for Banknifty

Support 1 – 55800

Support 2 – 55200

Support 3 – 54800

 Major Resistance Levels for Banknifty

Resistance 1 – 56900

Resistance 2 – 57400

Resistance 3 – 57900

 Important Stocks to Watch Next Week

1) AMBUJACEM

CMP  @ 556

Buy Above @ 565

Stop Loss Below @ 540

Targets @ 580, 600 and 625

2) AXISBANK

CMP @ 1195

Buy Above @ 1210

Stop Loss @ 1120

Targets @ 1280, 1340 and 1380