Export view - By Srishti Mendiratta

 

Semicon India 2026 was held in New Delhi last week and looking at the numbers, the story is pretty clear. 45 agreements were signed this time, up from 25 last year. Over 600 companies showed up, compared to 350 before and nearly 300 of them were international players. Registrations touched close to 50,000, with about 40,000 people actually walking the floor over three days. This wasn't a talking shop where everyone nods along and goes home. Officials were fairly direct about it too, saying India has moved past writing policy and is now actually executing it. And the next edition, likely around March 2028, is already being planned as an even bigger event, possibly clubbed with the India Mobile Congress.

What caught my attention is where the money and the deals actually went. It wasn't only about the big, headline grabbing fabrication plants. A good chunk of the agreements were around materials, gases, chemicals, power modules and packaging, basically the unglamorous middle of the supply chain that rarely makes it to the front page but matters just as much. There were tie ups for silicon carbide power modules used in high voltage transmission and renewable energy setups, for insulated gate bipolar transistors going into green energy equipment, and for IoT modules used in smart meters. Skilling got attention too, with a new semiconductor academy coming up and continued funding flowing into dozens of early stage deep tech companies.

A report released around the event puts India's semiconductor market at close to $64 billion in 2026, growing to $200 billion by 2035. Consumer electronics, automotive and industrial use together already make up about 61 per cent of that demand and these are the same sectors expected to keep pulling in fresh investment as global companies start looking at India as a place to build in, not just sell into.

Now, here's the part I think retail investors often miss. The opportunity isn't just in companies that make chips. That's actually the smallest, most visible slice of it. Around that core sits a much bigger ecosystem, specialty gas and chemical suppliers feeding the fabs, companies making testing and packaging equipment, power electronics manufacturers building the silicon carbide and IGBT components I mentioned earlier, engineering and construction firms putting up these massive plants, and logistics or facility management players supporting them once they're operational. Skilling providers and design or R&D services firms also stand to benefit as India tries to turn its large pool of chip design talent into something more than just talent on paper.

One this to be careful about is the timing. Semiconductor fabs take years, sometimes many years, to go from an announced investment to actual revenue on a company's books. A lot of what got signed this week are still collaboration agreements and memoranda, not confirmed orders, so it's worth watching for real execution rather than getting excited by the headline count. And frankly, many stocks linked to this theme, especially in capital goods, specialty chemicals and electronics manufacturing, have already run up quite a bit on the promise alone, which means some of that future growth may already be sitting in current prices.

My honest takeaway is to track which companies are actually turning these announcements into order books and revenue over the next few quarters, rather than chasing every stock that has a semiconductor tag attached to it. This is a story that will play out over a decade, not a quarter, and staying patient while keeping an eye on execution will probably serve you better than trying to time the next big announcement.

Sources: PIB, Semicon India 2026 event data, IESA-EY joint report on India's semiconductor market

By Srishti Mendiratta | SEBI-Registered Research Analyst – INH000024295

https://wealthminds.co.in/

investor@wealthminds.co.in

+91 9726629121

 

 

 

Export view - By Srishti Mendiratta

 Gold Financiers Are Growing Fast, 

Chasing India's Untapped 90%

Indian households own an estimated 34,600 tonnes of gold. That's worth close to 89% of the country's entire GDP, more than three times what households hold in equities. Yet only 9-10% of that gold has ever been used as collateral for a loan. The rest just sits in lockers, doing nothing. That gap between what could be used and what actually gets used is the whole growth story behind India's gold loan industry and it explains why so many lenders keep entering this space even as it gets more crowded.

NBFCs that focus on gold loans have grown fast chasing that gap, with their books expanding at a 55% annual pace between FY24 and FY26. Industry watchers expect this to continue, projecting around 40% annual growth through FY27 that would take the sector's assets to roughly INR 4 trillion, faster than the 27% growth seen in the two years before. Two things are driving this. First, gold prices rose sharply, touching an all-time high near USD 5,400 an ounce in January 2026, pushed up by central bank buying, a weaker dollar and global uncertainty. When gold gets more expensive, people can borrow more against the same jewellery they already own. Prices then fell about 25%, before rising again by 15% in August. That swing is worth noting, since it shows how much of this growth comes simply from gold getting pricier rather than more gold being pledged. Second, unsecured personal loans have become harder to get, pushing more borrowers, especially self-employed people and small business owners, toward gold loans instead.

Regulators have also been active, and this is where it gets interesting. From April 2026, the maximum amount lenders can offer against gold went up to 85% of gold value for smaller loans and 80% for slightly larger ones. That sounds like good news for borrowers. But there's a catch. The new rules also require lenders to include unpaid interest while calculating this limit, not just the loan amount. Once you factor that in, the real borrowing limit works out closer to 72%, barely different from the earlier 75% cap. In other words, the headline number changed, but the actual amount most people can borrow barely moved. It makes you wonder how many borrowers even notice the difference.

Competition is another theme worth watching closely. Banks still hold about 51% of the organised gold loan market, with NBFCs holding the remaining 49%. But several other NBFCs that had little presence in gold loans until recently have now entered this business, drawn by how safe it is. More lenders chasing the same customers is already putting some pressure on the interest rates lenders can charge, even as the total amount being lent keeps rising. That's a strange mix worth thinking about. A business getting more competitive while still staying fairly safe for lenders, at least for now.

Why does it stay safe? Because of the collateral itself. Gold doesn't lose value overnight, it's easy to price, and if someone fails to repay, lenders can sell the gold quickly, unlike trying to sell a house or a car. This is a big reason why gold loan NBFCs are expected to keep earning healthy returns, in the range of 4.25-4.5% on their assets through FY27, supported by steady demand and low bad-loan levels.

Here's a question worth thinking about, though. What happens to this growth story if gold prices simply stop rising for a couple of years? Much of the recent growth has come from rising prices, not from more people actually pledging their gold. Take that support away, and growth will depend on something far harder, which is convincing more Indians to finally put that unused 90% of their gold to work.

By Srishti Mendiratta | SEBI-Registered Research Analyst – INH000024295

https://wealthminds.co.in/

investor@wealthminds.co.in

 

 

Export view - By Srishti Mendiratta

 

India's Ecommerce Market Set to Nearly Triple to $345 Billion by 2030

India's online shopping bill is about to get a lot bigger. Ecommerce here is set to nearly triple by 2030 from 125 billion dollars in 2024 to 345 billion dollars. That’s an 18.4 per cent annual growth rate. Infisum's new report, Smart Growth in a Fast Market, is behind these numbers. Few large consumer markets anywhere are moving this fast right now.

What actually caught my attention isn't the 345 billion dollar figure. It's what's sitting underneath it. Quick commerce, the 10 to 15 minute delivery model, still felt like a gimmick two years ago. Now it's being talked about as permanent infrastructure. It is expected to be worth 65 to 70 billion dollars by 2030. That's 45 to 50 per cent of all the new growth in online retail from here. This means, nearly half of every fresh rupee spent online could soon move through a dark store instead of a regular warehouse. Redseer's own estimates point the same way, expecting quick commerce to go from a sliver of branded retail sales today to around 10 per cent of it by 2030.

Those dark stores are multiplying fast too. India had around 2,525 of them in 2025. That number is expected to climb to almost 7,500 by 2030. Nearly tripling in five years. That's a lot of real estate. A lot of hiring. A lot of last mile logistics, all being stitched together in a hurry. And the shift is already showing up in company numbers, not just projections. Blinkit's gross order value overtook its own group's food delivery business for the first time in the quarter ended June 2025, according to Eternal's results. Quick commerce quietly became the bigger business inside one of India's largest listed internet companies.

The demand side is shifting just as quickly. Gen Z already makes up close to a third of India's online shoppers. They're on track to become the country's biggest digital spending group by 2030. Add roughly 150 million new online shoppers expected to join by then. A lot of them from Tier 2 and Tier 3 towns. This is a buyer base that looks nothing like the one that built India's first ecommerce boom a decade ago.The regulatory backdrop is shifting too, and it will shape how this growth actually plays out. ONDC continues to widen the door for smaller sellers to plug into digital commerce without needing their own platform. Meanwhile, discussions around a Digital Competition Bill could eventually reshape how large platforms deal with sellers and pricing. Neither is fully settled, but both sit quietly in the background of every growth projection floating around right now.

It's not all upside either way. The report doesn't shy away from the risks. Rising fraud, more returns, tighter regulation and thinner margins. All real pressure points, even as revenue keeps climbing. Growth and profitability don't always show up together. That gap is worth keeping an eye on as this sector grows up. By 2030, online commerce could account for 10 to 12 per cent of India's total retail spending. It could add close to 2.5 per cent to the country's GDP. For an economy that's still early in its digital adoption journey, that's not just a bigger shopping cart. It's a genuine shift in how India buys things.

Sources: Business Standard, 2 September 2026 (Infisum, "Smart Growth in a Fast Market"); Business Standard, 27 March 2025 (Bain & Company e-retail report); Redseer research; Eternal Q1 FY26 results

By Srishti Mendiratta | SEBI-Registered Research Analyst – INH000024295

https://wealthminds.co.in/

investor@wealthminds.co.in